Every year people gather around and watch 4 days of college basketball. They have all filled out their brackets. And every person has picked their couple of major upsets hoping to be right so they can brag to everybody they know they picked that upset. I just watched Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue a couple of days ago to be the 2nd 16-seed to upset a 1-seed.
So how do these lower seeded teams continually upset the higher seeded teams every year? I see 4 keys to an upset. The great thing about an upset is that not all 4 keys are needed for an upset. If a team is able to do just 1 of the 4 then they have a chance to pull the upset. So, what are the 4 keys to an upset?
1) Bad Guard Play = Turnovers
The first key and the biggest key is good guard play. The guards of the underdog must be able to handle pressure. The main reason for needing good guard play is not turning the ball over. Turnovers lead to extra possessions for the favorite and normally some easy baskets. The underdog can not give the favorite any additional help.
For a team to pull an upset they must take advantage of every possession. If teams turn the ball over then they are in trouble. For this reason, I think turnovers are one of the biggest stats in basketball whether a team is trying to pull an upset or not. Follow the link to read my article of the most important stats in basketball.
Guard play has to be at a very high level with getting the ball into the right player’s hands on offense and not turning it over. If a team has a guard that can create his own shot and score then that is an even bigger plus for the underdog. There are going to be times during a game when things go bad. When that happens if the underdog has a guard who can go get the ball and still score then that helps to put additional pressure on the favorite.
If I am building an upset, then the first thing I am doing is getting 2 or for a real good chance 3 guards that can really play the game. The more ball handlers a team has, the more likely they are to pull an upset. This keeps the favorite from focusing on getting the ball out of just one players hands. The defense now has to focus on multiple players.
2) Rebounding
The 2nd key to an upset is rebounding. This is two-fold. First the underdog has to be able to get defensive rebounds. This is the most important of the two. An underdog must try and limit the number of shots and possessions of the favorite. Offensive rebounds by the favorite gives them extra shots or easy putbacks. An underdog must have good defensive rebounding.
Secondly, an underdog needs to try and steal some possessions and baskets. The easiest way to do this is either with turnovers or offensive rebounds. The turnovers are key #1 and rebounds are #2. The more putbacks an underdog gets, the less they are having to score against a set defense. When trying to pull an upset, points have to be scored any way possible. Offensive rebounds are a quick and easy way to score those points.
The third reason why I watch rebounding is the physicality factor. Usually a favorite is bigger and stronger than the lower seeds. Especially when you have a Power 5 team playing against a 1-bid conference team. If the underdog cannot compete physically than that usually spells trouble for them. I want to see if the underdog can compete physically with the favorite. If they can, then they are not just going to get pushed around.
For this tournament, 2023, watch both of San Diego St’s 1st two games and Tennessee against Duke. San Diego St and Tennessee physically dominated their opponents. San Diego St pushed around both Charleston and Furman and never really gave either team a chance to win the game. And Tennessee pushed around Duke physically. This caused Duke to struggle offensively all game and never really gave Tennessee a scare of beating them.
3) 3-point shooting
The great equalizer is the 3-point shot. An underdog that comes in and is able to knock down a bunch of 3s will create problems for the favorite. This does 2 things.
First, it scores 3 points. If the favorite has a size advantage and is scoring inside then they are going to be playing check up cause the underdog is scoring 3 points. The 3-point shot can keep the game close for a long time. The underdog is just trying to get the game to be within 6 points with 5 minutes to go. This gives them a chance to win the game late.
Secondly, it makes the favorite extend the defense out farther which could create open driving lanes to the basket. If the underdog has good guard play then they should be able to take advantage of an extended defense. Now if the driving lanes are open and being taken, then the defense has to rotate which will lead to kick out 3s. This is the cycle the underdog can do to push the outcome of the game in their favor.
On the reverse, if the favorite has a bad shooting night and is not making 3s then the underdog has a chance to pull the upset. For an upset to occur, usually the underdog has to play at their highest potential and the favorite has to have at least a slightly off night. One of the ways the favorite can help the underdog pull an upset is to have a bad shooting night. These can happen in any game. If a bad shooting night occurs in the tourney, then that team is usually headed back home.
4) Controlling the Tempo
The last key is controlling the tempo. This can be either speeding the game up or slowing the game down. Both can work. It is about getting the tempo of the game working towards the underdogs favor.
Fairleigh Dickinson was able to get the tempo going fast against the much bigger Purdue team. The tempo of the game helped to negate the 7’4 center for Purdue Zach Edey. The pace of the game never let Purdue get in a half court game to have Edey control everything. Smaller teams can remove a size disadvantage by making the bigger team play faster.
Princeton was able to beat Arizona as a 15-seed by slowing the game down and keeping the score in the 50’s. Princeton slowed the game down and was able to execute in the half court. This kept Arizona from getting into a rhythm. When the game is slow, then every possession is that much more important. The number of possessions get reduced so each turnover and each missed shot carries a lot more weight.
The tempo plays a big part of determining winners. Underdogs have to play in a comfortable pace and this usually means the favorite is playing a style they do not prefer. If the favorite is able to get the tempo playing in their favor, this is usually when the favorite makes a big run. If the underdog can not get the tempo back in their favor then the favorite usually can pull away and win by a comfortable margin.
Conclusion
Upsets are hard to achieve. There are keys to an upset. These are the four biggest keys to an upset. While an underdog does not need to have all 4 keys during the game, they need at least 1 of them. Sometimes 1 key is all that is needed to pull an upset. The more keys an underdog is able to achieve, the higher chance an upset is going to occur.
The next time you are watching basketball especially during the NCAA tournament, watch for these keys when an upset is starting to occur during a game.
