Every year in March people are glued to their TVs watching the NCAA Tournament. Along with watching the games, people are filling out brackets trying to correctly predict the winners of each game. One of the hardest things to do is to correctly pick the upsets that happen every year in the first and second rounds. Double digit seeds make the Sweet 16 every year and correctly picking those underdog teams are hard to do. What should you be looking for when trying to correctly pick the upsets that happen every year?
There are 3 things I look at when trying to predict upsets in the tournament. While these are not always a guarantee an upset pick, it seems like these things are present when an upset occurs.
1) Higher Seeded Team Dealing with Injuries
2) Lower Seeded Team Has the Best Player
3) Lower Seeded Team Has Outstanding Guard Play
1) Higher Seeded Team is Dealing with Injuries
Sometimes an upset occurs not because the lower seeded team does something great but the higher seeded team has an injury or injuries and is not the same team that has been playing all season. Injuries happen and sometimes these injuries change a team drastically leading to potential upsets.
Injuries are bad for 2 reasons. First, players on a team should have designated roles within the team. When a player is injured, the team roles have to change to make up for the loss of the injured player.
The second reason is the coach normally will have a subbing system in place as long as foul trouble does not occur at least in the first half. When a player is injured, the subbing pattern has to be adjusted and this can lead to lineups that may not work well together. Lineup combinations that have not been used before may be tried before the coach can settle back into a good working subbing pattern. This can take time.
An injury that occurs closer to the tournament or in the tournament can cause a higher seeded team to struggle for a game or two while things get worked out with the loss of a player. In the tournament, that one or two game struggle may be the game a team gets upset and now they are going home instead of moving on.
Case in Point: 16-seeded UMBC beating 1-seeded Virginia in 2018
Virginia came into the tournament as a potential National Championship contender and ACC regular season and ACC tournament champions. No 16-seed had ever beat a 1-seed so most people had this game over before it even started. Right before the tournament started Virginia forward De’Andre Hunter who was the ACC Sixth Man of the Year Award Winner went down with an injury and was out for the tournament.
While Hunter did not start, he played the 5th most minutes per game on the team and was the 4th leading scorer on the team. Virginia was not an offensive juggernaut so losing the 4th leading scorer and a de facto starter by minutes played right before the tournament started changed the team dynamic a great deal.
This gave UMBC the opening it needed to be able to pull an upset against a team that lost its 6th Man 2 days before the game. Virginia players also need to adjust their roles on the team with the loss of Hunter. All of this helped UMBC pull the most unlikely upset.
2) Lower Seeded Team Has the Best Player
Basketball with only having 5 players on the court at a time can be influenced greatly by 1 player. If the lower seeded team has the best player on the court, then this one player can help the lower seeded team upset the higher seeded team. Every year there seems to be one player from the mid-major teams have a breakout tournament that came into the tournament as an unknown.
The transfer portal has changed this because those players from the mid-majors are able to enter the transfer portal and move up to the power conference teams. Players are able to move teams easily now so the sleeper players from 20 years ago are finding themselves playing in a power conference after playing a year at a mid-major school with good play.
Due to the movement, the unknown players playing at the mid-major programs are becoming a thing of the past. But there is always a chance a player that has been overlooked finding themselves starring in the tournament while at a mid-major program.
Case in Point: Steph Curry at Davidson in 2008
Two Honorable Mentions are Wally Szczerbiak in 1999 scoring 43 points in the first round game before leading Miami(OH) to the Sweet 16. And Antonio Gates leading Kent St to the Elite 8 in the 2002 tournament.
Steph Curry in 2008 led 10-seeded Davidson to the Elite 8 and almost upset eventually champion Kansas to make the Final 4. Curry started by scoring 40 points in the first round with 30 of them coming in the 2nd half to beat Gonzaga.
Curry then scored 30 points with 25 2nd half points to erase a 17-point deficit to beat 2-seed Georgetown to get the Sweet 16. Curry then scored another 33 points to beat Wisconsin the 3-seed.
However, eventually champion Kansas was able to escape with a 2-point win in the regional final with Curry scoring 25 of his teams’ 57 points. Curry exploded onto the tournament scene and scored his way to the Elite 8 and almost a Final 4 at Davidson. Now with the NBA career Curry has had, it makes sense he was able to do this. But in 2008, the small undersized Curry was an unexpected player performing on the biggest stage. These types of performances can help a lower seed make a run in the tournament.
3) Lower Seeded Team Has Outstanding Guard Play
Two stats that are the most important in my opinion for an upset to occur or not to occur are turnovers and 3-point shooting. Both of these stats are normally dependent on the play of the lower seeded team’s guards. The guards must not turn the ball over. Turnovers can lead to easy baskets on runouts. A lower seeded team has to play a very good game and turnovers and giving up transition points make it near impossible for a lower seeded team to pull an upset.
The other stat is 3-point shooting percentage. A lower seeded team that is able to make 3-pointers are able to keep pace with a team who has skill and height advantages. And most often the guards are the players shooting the majority of 3-point shots. So, a team that has guards who can shoot are able to make up disadvantages in skill by making 3-point shots.
Along the same lines, most upsets are close games where a late basket can determine the winner. The guards are going to be the players with the ball in their hands during these late game, close game situations. Good guard play gives the lower seeded team a chance to make the right plays or make the last second shots to pull off the upset.
Case in Point: 16-seeded UMBC beating 1-seeded Virginia in 2018 and 15-seeded Saint Peters in 2022 reaching the Elite 8.
Going back to the UMBC upset of Virginia, UMBC was able to spread Virginia defense out and then let their guards attack the open space created by spreading out the defense. UMBC also played 4 guards and 1 forward which caused problems for Virginia in being able to match up defensively. This guard centric lineup made it difficult for Virginia to find the right lineups to play. Add in Virginia lost De’Andre Hunter to injury like I stated earlier and UMBC had Virginia unsure of what to do.
Saint Peters in 2022 had small undersized guards but they took care of the ball and understood how to play. Saint Peters was able to upset 2-seeded Kentucky to start the tournament. Then beat 7-seeded Murray St to reach the Sweet 16. A win over 3-seeded Purdue put Saint Peters into the Elite 8. Their Cinderella run ended with a loss to 8-seeded North Carolina.
Saint Peters’ guards were able to control the ball without turning it over and control the tempo of their wins. Saint Peters had 3 main guards who were able to make tough shots over and over again. Daryl Banks and Doug Edert was named to the East Regional team due to the excellent play during the tournament. They did not do anything flashy, but they did not have turnovers and they were able to make shots at the biggest times to keep Saint Peters winning and advancing.
Conclusion
Predicting an upset is hard to do but there are some keys to look for each and every year that can make picking the right double-digit seed to advance a little bit easier. Injuries can change a team a lot from how they played throughout the season. In this 2024 tournament, Kansas and Florida, are two teams I am looking at that are battling injuries at just the wrong time.
A player who has been overlooked can announce themselves to the public with big time performances in the tournament. Sometimes those breakout stars are hard to predict because the lack of attention that is given to those mid-major teams. Tucker DeVries at Drake and Enrique Freeman at Akron are two names to keep an eye on this tournament.
Good guard play can help an upset-minded team with good 3-point shooting. Samford and McNeese are two low seeded teams that just might be able to shoot their way into a win or two this tournament.
I am probably wrong in these predictions but that is what makes the NCAA tournament so much fun to watch. Unlikely wins, players making a name for themselves on a national stage, and tournament basketball for 3 full weeks.
